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DISASTER RESILIENCE
Scientists are racing to understand tsunami risk
An earthquake on the Alpine Fault has a coin-flip chance of dislodging a landslide into Milford Sound, which will almost certainly set off a tsunami. We know this because it’s happened at least 30 times before. Beneath the black water, the seabed is coated in layers of debris that used to belong to the mountains. The peaks are still scarred where the rock split and fell. When part of a mountain topples into a fiord, what happens? Think of Archimedes in the bath. “If you drop a million tonnes of rock into the water, a million tonnes of water is going to try and get out,” says the University of Canterbury’s Tom Robinson, an expert in disaster risk, especially landslides triggered by earthquakes. A tsunami isn’t good news anywhere, but a fiord is a particularly bad place to have one. The size of the wave would depend roughly on how far a landslide fell and the depth of the water it struck, and in Milford, a rock avalanche could tumble 1000 metres into water only 300 metres deep. These proportions are not in our favour. Keep reading...
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